2009 Salmon returns

2009 was dominated by news headlines and articles describing a disastrous collapse of salmon returns and stocks in BC. As usual, all sorts of reasons were given or recycled, from excessively warm water to sea-lice infestations of young salmon caused by open water fish farms. And of course climate change. What, after all these days is not blamed on climate change or associated with it… However, although grim in some respects maybe, the picture isn’t quite what it seems.

actually 2009 in many respects has been a phenomenal year, especially locally here on the Sunshine Coast for Pinks (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) which saw returns far above expectations or anything in (almost) living memory, to a lesser extent Chum (Oncorhynchus keta) , whereas Coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) was much as expected. Only Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) returns here were slightly below expectations. This exceptional year was not unique to the Coast; reports from coastal fishing lodges and other sources, even early on in the year, suggested that, if not an absolute record year, especially compared to the last few years 2009 was a bumper year. So what were (and are) those doom-and-gloom headlines all about?

the issue was and is not of salmon failing to return for spawning; it is almost purely about Fraser River Sockeye failing to return this year. And that happens to be locally here, in South-Western BC, the commercially most valuable fish stock. Also of course literally most of the population of BC lives in this corner some 2 ½ million out of 4 million people, so the “failure” was also the most visible aspect of (otherwise quite sensational) returns overall. The knee-jerk response, apart from shouting “climate change” and “sea-lice” by the usual suspects, was for Federal Government to set up an official inquiry into the management or mismanagement of Fraser salmon stocks by the much maligned (in my opinion unjustifiably so in this particular area) Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO). How could they get it so wrong or what the hell happened?

ironically, DFO actually got it right, very right overall. The initial predictions for 2009 returns were reasonable, due to the fact that 2005 had been a decent year for Sockeye making it back to the spawning grounds (of course many more than those making it back to the spawning ground arrived initially at the Fraser mouth, but more than half are “fished out” or didn’t make it back up-river for other reasons). Based on that, the prediction was for a good return but, as DFO and scientists well know, the model used for those predictions is generally right about 50% of the time. Or wrong 50% of the time, whatever you prefer. I guess that means the model is always right when you look at it from that perspective.

some of the confusion arose because earlier in the year and throughout the season, there were reports of a large number of Sockeye arriving off the coast of southern Vancouver Island as well as virtually everywhere else aong the BC Coast (with the exception of the Skeena River), suggesting an unexpected increase in returns. Unfortunately some wag quickly “upped” or confirmed the numbers for 2009 substantially as a result, but it proved to be merely a temporary hump in migration, not applicable to Fraser River Sockeye, soon falling back. Just a little bit shifted in time, as seems to become a habit of Fraser Sockeye. Changing and fairly unpredictable habits and patterns. A sign of adjustment or something else? Who knows… we’ll have to wait and see how it settles out and work back from there.

so although from a commercial (and First Nations “food” fisheries-) perspective this year’s Fraser Sockeye returns were pretty disastrous, albeit not unexpected, overall salmon (including Sockeye-) stocks have done well this year and actually have been doing well for quite some time. Alaska and Northern BC salmon fisheries are thriving, we here on the Sunshine Coast were “knee-deep” in Pinks (as one of my DFO contacts put it succinctly) and Chum, as well as much according to expectations for Coho, Chinook and Sockeye, and reports from elsewhere confirm that this wasn’t unique for the Sunshine Coast by a long shot. It was the norm. Except for Fraser Sockeye.

that doesn’t mean though nothing unexpected happened. In fact quite the opposite. In particular the story of Pinks here is worth talking about in a little bit of detail as that also gives me the chance to deal with the “myth” of salmon returning to the exact place of their birth to spawn and start the cycle again. The “myth” because, although there is a lot of truth in it (isn’t there in every myth?), it isn’t quite as romantic as we like to make out, although still very romantic and clever.

we (fisheries) biologists have known for a long time that not all salmon return to the exact place of their birth, or indeed even the precise river or stream, for their last ditch effort of spawning before they die. Generally speaking in the first instance they return to approximately the area where they first entered the sea, which is still hellishly clever and a major effort when you think how large the Pacific is and what distances are involved, but there is or can be quite a lot of “drift” between populations and streams, depending on “local” circumstances.

returning salmon look for, or rather maybe “taste for”, flowing freshwater inflows with a flavour they remember or which has been “imprinted” on them when they first got ready to leave for the sea. Now if a river is as large as the Fraser, you can easily taste that for miles and miles away, especially if it dominates all other freshwater flows in a large area, so there is little surprise that salmon will return in big numbers “to the place and river of their birth” although there will always be some that end up elsewhere. If a small stream is the only stream in an otherwise reasonably sized area, there isn’t much choice or chance for “error” either; once you are in the area, that is where you go.

the story becomes different though where there are multiple small or large streams discharging, not all of which may have the same volume of water all of (or even at) the same time. And some particularly good examples of that we saw this year with Pinks on the Sunshine Coast in the Gibsons area. Not in living memory, well, at least not for the last fifteen years by all accounts, have we seen Pinks in or returning to Gibsons Creek. Not in the lower section nor in the section above Marine Drive which is separated from the lower reach by the almost unassailable barrier of an oversize, too long and too steep culvert. But this year, for the first time in god-knows-how-long, did we have Pinks in Gibsons Creek, both in the upper and lower section, spawning! And a few other creeks besides. Now as Pinks only live for two years, these most definitely weren’t “imprinted” with Gibsons Creek, nor were they returning to the place of their birth or even their grandmother's birth. What was happening here?

Gibsons harbour is a small basin, separated from Howe Sound and the Georgia Strait by a large groin, with the fairly unique characteristic of “deep” freshwater under seawater, due to the underwater outflow of a freshwater source. It has only two small creeks emerging into it, Goosebird Creek with no significant water flow to speak of, and Charman Creek with more water but highly rainfall dependent and thus not always flowing significantly if at all. Two years ago, a local hatchery with obviously far too many Pinks on their hands (not a favourite sport fish- in fact if a serious fisher catches one around here he/she invariably and quietly gives it to passing kids so it doesn’t count towards their bag-limit and he can keep fishing for “real salmon”) released 30,000 Pink smolts into Gibsons Harbour.

this year they came back. Not to Gibsons Harbour specifically, otherwise it would have been “boiling” with salmon, but the general area of Gibsons Harbour in Howe Sound, which has a small number of creeks discharging close-by and a few more further afield. One of those is Gibsons Creek, and the results were immediate; salmon entering the stream, trying to work their way up that unassailable culvert, some of which eventually succeeded, and spawning in areas which, although suitable, had not seen spawning salmon for probably decades. The same could be seen in streams up and down our coast line and probably also in streams on the off-shore islands.

depending on many factors, not the least of which is spawning success but given the number of “returns” this year I’d expect something significant, we will see their off-spring back in two years time. An “odd-year” cycle has been established. Not necessarily to the exact place of their birth; it would be a tall order to expect Gibsons Creek salmon to come back only to Gibsons Creek, Langdale Creek Pinks only to Langdale, Soames Creek Pinks to Soames, and even the odd Charman Creek Pink to Charman etc, but to the general area. And if the conditions are right, enough water flow in the creeks etc, I expect to see Pinks again in each of those creeks.

not particularly those that were “born” specifically there but definitely from the new, let’s call it “Gibsons Odd-year Run”. Not quite as romantic as we would like of course, but that takes nothing away from the magnificent feat of returning from god-knows-where, maybe Russia even, passing unharmed and safely through the Alaskan fisheries (either the salmon fisheries or as unwanted “by-catch”) and making their way back over here to Gibsons, Chekwelp (Indian Reserve 26)- the birthplace of mankind, and starting the cycle al over again. Hopefully we will have Gibsons Creek in better shape by that time and build upon what we unexpectedly got this time.